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Global fixed broadband subscriptions will reach half a billion in 2010, driven by continued growth in emerging markets, according to Informa Telecoms & Media. Fixed broadband markets in mature countries are fast approaching saturation point, but tens of millions of homes in some of the world's largest markets, such as China and India, are still without connectivity and it is these developing regions that are poised to drive a second wave of broadband growth.

The number of net new fixed broadband subscriptions in 2009 grew to over 480 million, largely as a result of accelerating growth in emerging markets. That number is expected to reach 500 million this year. China, Russia, Mexico, India and Vietnam were among the countries that recorded the greatest leaps in fixed-broadband subscription numbers in 2009.

Analyst figures indicate that seven of the top 20 countries by fixed broadband subscription count at the end of September 2009 could be classified as emerging markets. The number of net additions in each of these countries was up substantially year-on-year, while those of the world's largest developed markets were either flat or down.

Countries by fixed broadband subscriptions, September 2009:
1. China: 91,348,000
2. US: 82,846,600
3. Japan: 31,240,000
4. Germany: 25,114,300
5. France: 19,306,400
6. UK: 18,033,300
7. Korea: 16,238,262
8. Russia: 12,356,100
9. Italy: 12,116,350
10. Brazil: 10,951,600
11. Spain: 9,681,520
12. Canada: 9,562,000
13. Mexico: 8,771,100
14. India: 7,653,460
15. Netherlands: 6,274,000
16. Turkey: 6,166,800
17. Australia: 5,968,000
18. Poland: 5,654,100
19. Taiwan: 5,549,440
20. Argentina: 3,543,800
(telecoms.com, January 2010)


The demand for high-bandwidth applications will jump in the next few years as the number of households worldwide with broadband will reach close to 650 million by 2013, according to international research firm Parks Associates. The firm's new report Broadband Services: Global Outlook warns that service providers will have to continue investing in network technologies to accommodate multiple services such as video-on-demand and converging social-networking applications.

Parks Associates reports that the number of broadband households worldwide grew by over 18% in 2008 to exceed 400 million. Asia-Pacific is the largest market, accounting for over 160 million subscribers, and it will have over 49% of the global market share by 2013.

In the US, the federal government, at the request of the Obama Administration, will soon release billions of dollars from the stimulus package to promote expansion of affordable high-speed Internet services in rural areas, which will open new areas in this country to advanced online services. (Parks Associates, July 2009)


Subscriber-for-subscriber, China caught up to the U.S. in broadband or high-speed internet lines in August 2008 says a report from Point Topic, "China Overtakes the USA to be World Broadband Number 1."


New broadband lines added in the U.S. fell from 3.4 million in the last quarter of 2007 to 1.1 million in Q2 2008. In the same period, new broadband lines rose from 3.5 million to 5.0 million in China during the same period.

In June of 2008 the U.S. had a total of 76.9 million broadband lines, and China had 76 million, a difference of 900,000. The gap was less than the number China added in July alone, 1.14 million according to Chinese official figures. When broadband first became widely available in China, it was predicted the country would overtake the U.S. in number of subscribers as early as 2006, though this growth levelled off in China while it accelerated in the U.S. up until this year.

The report suggests the U.S. broadband penetration slowdown has implications for the competitiveness of the U.S. economy in a high-tech world. (ClickZ.com, October 2008)

The total broadband population is counted at 367.7 million globally, according to "World Broadband Statistics: Q1 2008" from Point-Topic

At the end of 2007, there were 351.1 million global subscribers to broadband, resulting in a 4.7% (or 16.6 million subscription) increase between the close of the year and the end of Q1. 

Worldwide Broadband subscribers by Region, Q1 2008 (%):
- Western Europe: 26.55%
- North America: 23.01%
- South and East Asia: 21.32%
- Asia-Pacific: 16.05%
- Latin America: 5.48%
- Eastern Europe: 4.79%
- Middle East and Africa: 2.80%

Western Europe represents the highest share of broadband subscribers with 26.6%; North America (23.0%); and South and East Asia (21.3%) follow Europe closely in terms of market share. Western Europe (24.5%) and North America (25.6%) also lead the world in broadband penetration. Asia Pacific nations follow with 9.1% broadband penetration, then it's Eastern Europe (5.5%); Latin America (4.2%); Southeast Asia (2.9%); and the Middle East and Africa (2.4%). 

In terms of total broadband subscribers, the US reports the highest, with 75.7 million, up 3.46% from the previous quarter when there were 73.2 million subscribers. China registers 71 million subscribers, a 6.72% climb over Q4's 66.5 million. China also added the most new subscribers in Q1. The US followed with the second largest number of new subscribers, and Germany added the third highest number. (ClickZ.com, July 2008)

The 802.16e mobile WiMAX standard looks placed to be a DSL substitution technology over the next five years, according to Jupiter Research.

Juniper Research forecasts mobile WiMAX to substitute 12% of DSL and other mobile broadband subscriber deployments by 2013, representing around 47 million subscribers.

Juniper said that the top WiMAX regions for DSL substitution will be the Far East and North America, followed by Western Europe and Africa/Middle East.

Global WiMAX service revenues, as a DSL replacement technology, will grow to over $20 billion per annum by 2013. However, Juniper warns that if mobile WiMAX is to fulfil its fixed-lined potential, two factors must fall into place: availability of suitable devices, and timely network construction.

Juniper estimates there are over 250 trial 802.16e WiMAX networks globally, with a small but growing number of commercial networks in service. (Telecoms.com, April 2008)

Appetite for broadband continues to grow around the world, with global subscriber levels reaching 300 million, according to researcher Point Topic.

Users around the world are still hungry for broadband connectivity, if the latest statistics from researcher Point Topic - which suggest the audience has surpassed the 300 million mark - are anything to go by.

The UK came seventh in the Top 10 list of countries contributing to the overall broadband subscriber base by the end of March 2007:
1. US: 60,362,830
2. China: 56,258,499
3. Japan: 26,533,000
4. Germany: 16,142,750
5. France: 15,304,900
6. South Korea: 14,102,888
7. UK: 13,953,000 
8. Italy: 9,348,250
9. Canada: 8,010,139
10. Spain: 7,185,932

Point Topic's figures show that the worldwide broadband subscriber base was 298 million as at the end of March 2007. Given the prevailing growth rates it is safe to assume the number has now passed 300 million, according to Point Topic.

In terms of regional growth, Eastern Europe is pretty strong. Indeed, it was the only region to record growth of more than 10% during the period, with Romania passing the one million subscriber milestone. (ITPRO, June 2007)

The number of broadband subscribers will reach 567 million worldwide by 2011, up from the current 285 million in 2007, according to In-Stat's "Broadband Gets Big: Global Broadband Subs Hit 285 Million" report. New subscribers totalled 65 million in the 12 months prior to May 2007. 

DSL and cable modems account for 92% of broadband connections worldwide. The report stated that over half of the world's broadband access will come from DSL connections by 2011. 

In-Stat attributed the growth to a basic desire for speedier internet connections and added that the emergence of online applications such as viewing video clips or TV programming, downloading music files, and even playing online games, are fuelling end-user demand for faster access.

eMarketer's own projections are based on the Federal Communications Commission's definition of at least 200 kbps in at least one direction. eMarketer also counts broadband households, not individual subscriptions. By this count, the number of broadband-connected households will reach more than 497 million worldwide by 2011, up from 251.2 million in 2006. 

Broadband households worldwide, 2005-2011:
- 2005: 194.2 million
- 2006: 252.2 million
- 2007: 299.5 million
- 2008: 351.7 million
- 2009: 400.1 million
- 2010: 447.0 million
- 2011: 497.4 million

eMarketer notes that we are seeing high-speed internet users trading up to very-high-speed internet connections. Standard ADSL is quickly turning into the new 'dial-up'.

The nature of broadband connections is also changing. In-Stat projected over 55 million fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) broadband households by 2011. Alternative broadband technologies such as FTTH are growing quickly, especially in Japan, South Korea and the US, according to Point-Topic. The firm claimed that more than 10% of the world's broadband connections were through FTTH as of Q3 2006. 

Broadband lines worldwide, by access technology, Q3 2006 (% of total):
- DSL: 65.6%
- Cable modem: 22.8%
- FTTx ("fiber-to-the-wherever"): 10.2%
- Other: 1.4%
(eMarketer, June 2007)

The number of subscribers to broadband services in the 30 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) increased by 26% from December 2005 to December 2006. 

A 26% increase brings total broadband subscribers to 197 million at the end of 2006, up from 157 million the previous year. Per capita, broadband reaches 16.9 subscribers per 100 inhabitants, an increase from 15.5 subscribers per 100 inhabitants reported midyear and 13.5 per 100 in 2005. Broadband penetration exceeds 30 subscribers per 100 inhabitants in Denmark and the Netherlands and 26 subscribers for every 100 people in Iceland, Korea, Switzerland, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. 

Countries adding at least 5.8 subscribers per 100 citizens include Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and Ireland, which accounted for the strongest per-capita subscriber growth over last year. 

The US maintains the largest total number of broadband subscribers among countries tracked by OECD, with 29% of all broadband connections. US broadband subscribers reached 58.1 million in December. Canada leads the G7 group of industrialized countries in broadband penetration. 

Broadband technologies include DSL (62%); cable modem (29%); Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and fiber-to-the-building (FTTB) (7%); and other technologies, including satellite, fixed wireless, and power-line communications (2%). Cable is the predominant broadband delivery method in the U.S. and Canada, though DSL takes the lead in 28 of the 30 countries. Fiber technology adoption is on the rise in Korea and Japan. Japan leads in fiber connections with 7.9 million FTTH subscribers. 

Broadband subscribers in OECD countries in December 2006:
- Denmark: 1,728,359 (31.9% of the population)
- Netherlands: 5,192,200 (31.8%)
- Iceland: 87,738 (29.7%)
- Korea: 14,042,728 (29.1%)
- Switzerland: 2,140,309 (28.5%)
- Norway: 1,278,346 (27.7%)
- Finland: 1,428,000 (27.2%)
- Sweden: 2,346,300 (26.0%)
- Canada: 7,675,533 (23.8%)
- Belgium: 2,353,956 (22.5%)
- UK: 12,993,354 (21.6%)
- Luxembourg: 93,214 (20.4%)
- France: 12,699,000 (20.3%)
- Japan: 25,755,080 (20.2%)
- US: 58,136,577 (19.6%)
- Australia: 3,939,288 (19.2%)
- Austria: 1,427,986 (17.3%)
- Germany: 14,085,232 (17.1%)
- Spain: 6,654,881 (15.3%)
- Italy: 8,638,873 (14.8%)
- New Zealand: 576,067 (14.0%)
- Portugal: 1,460,341 (13.8%)
- Ireland: 517,300 (12.5%)
- Hungary: 1,198,709 (11.9%)
- Czech Republic: 1,086,620 (10.6%)
- Poland: 2,640,000 (6.9%)
- Slovak Republic: 274,108 (5.1%)
- Greece: 512,000 (4.6%)
- Turkey: 2,773,685 (3.8%)
- Mexico: 3,728,150 (3.5%)
- OECD: 197,463,934 (16.9%)
(ClickZ.com, April 2007)

Wireless internet access will account for 49% of all broadband subscribers worldwide by 2012, up from 17% in 2007, according to Informa Telecoms & Media's "WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Revenue Opportunities" report.

The limited coverage of wired access networks in many developing countries is a clear opportunity for wireless broadband technologies such as WiMAX, EV-DO and HSPA, according to Informa. WiMAX subscribership in particular will reach 65.63 million worldwide in 2012, up from 4.23 million in 2007, representing a compound annual growth rate of 73%. 

The Asia-Pacific region will be the leading region for WiMAX through 2012. Mobile WiMAX deployments in South Korea and Australia will drive the trend, along with fixed networks in India and Pakistan. (eMarketer, May 2007)

DSL remains by far the most popular broadband access technology worldwide with a 65.7% market share, according to research by the DSL Forum carried out by Point Topic. DSL accounts for almost 88% of all broadband subscribers in the Middle East and Africa - the fastest growing broadband region.

Of the other broadband access technologies, fibre to the home or other close location (FTTx), now delivers more than 10% of broadband services across the world, the Forum said. Less than 1% of broadband is delivered by satellite, accounting for 784,750 subscribers.

In global terms, the USA is the world's largest broadband market with more than 57 million subscribers. China, the second largest market, is rapidly closing the gap and added 14.4 million broadband subscribers in 2006, more than 3 million more than the USA - to reach 51.9 million. 

13 countries now have over three million DSL subscribers, with a further three - the Netherlands (at 2,957,000 subscribers), Turkey (at 2,935,900) and Mexico (at 2,725,683) - fast approaching. In total, 26 nations have more than 1 million DSL subscribers, with Denmark, Argentina and Russia passing the figure in 2006. (Telecoms.com, March 2007)

While dial-up access to the internet continues its slow death globally, the number of internet adults using 'wired' broadband connections may also be peaking, according to Ipsos Insight's annual The Face of the Web study. At the end of 2006, it is estimated that over ¾ (77%) of the global online population was using a broadband connection to access the internet, in comparison to just 21% using a dial-up connection. And although the prevalence of broadband access continued its steady growth trend through 2006, growing an additional 7% points from 2005 (70%), the days of robust annual growth for broadband penetration may soon be coming to an end. 

The latest findings from The Face of the Web 2006 - based on interviews in 12 key global markets with more than 6,553 adults, including 3,798 active internet users at the end of 2006 - reflect the adoption possibilities of the internet that few other consumer technologies have shown in the past.

Over the past several years, we have witnessed a significant migration within the online population to broadband access technologies. Most of these users were either upgrading from dial-up connections or were new users that jumped straight to broadband access to get online. However, with fewer dial-up users to 'convert' in the future, and fewer net new users to capture, broadband’s growth may begin to plateau in many developed markets in the near future.

Prevalence of internet access technology among global internet users in 2006:
- High speed (net): 78% (56% in 2003)
- DSL: 45% (36%)
- Cable: 22% (19%)
- Optical fiber: 11% (6%)
- ISDN: 9% (n/a)
- Dial-up: 20% (45%)
- Wireless access/service: 15% (17%)
- Some other connection: 6% (6%)

While most internet users in developed markets primarily rely on high-speed DSL connections to get online, the prominance of high-speed access technology varies significantly by region. Within North America - US, Canada and Mexico collectively - cable modem connections represent a much larger percentage of overall high-speed access compared to other parts of the world. In the US alone, the percentage of those using cable modems (30%) is nearly equal to the number utilizing DSL (33%), and in Canada cable modem is the #1 internet access technology. Within Asia Pacific, optical fiber connections are much more common than in any other part of the world, symptomatic of the high demand for Fiber to the Home (FTTH) installations in South Korean and Japanese households.

Broadband access by market:
- Japan: 89%
- Germany: 84%
- South Korea: 80%
- China: 79%
- USA: 71%
- Canada: 71%
- France: 70%
- UK: 57%
- Brazil: 46%
- India:40%
- Mexico: 34%
- Russia: 26%

Despite the fact that wireless internet access from a PC still remains a relatively nascent behaviour - just 15% of users connect to the internet in this manner today - the future of Wireless internet access looks very promising globally. Two factors contribute to this optimism:

- First, the rate of household ownership of notebook PCs continues to climb globally - now at 34% - as the growth rate for desktop ownership has remained stagnant for the past several years, underscoring the notebook's dominance in driving PCs sales today. In addition, the prevalence of mobile internet browsing - surfing the web on a wireless handheld device such as a cell phone or smart phone - also continues to climb globally; at the end of 2006, nearly one in three adults (31%) had ever accessed the internet on a wireless mobile device.

- Second, in many underdeveloped nations, which collectively represent the Industry's untapped market for internet User volume, some online adults are beginning to 'leapfrog' high-speed tethered connections, such as cable and DSL, and opt for Wireless access/service to connect to the internet simply because that’s where the 'access' opportunities are emerging within these markets.
(Ipsos Insight, April 2007)

There were approximately 250 million broadband households worldwide at the end of 2006, according to eMarketer.

Broadband households and penetration level in selected countries worldwide in 2006:
- US: 54.6 million (45.9% of total household)
- China: 46.6 million (12.6%)
- Japan: 23.7 million (52.3%)
- South Korea: 12.7 million (78.8%)
- UK: 12.0 million (47.1%)
- Germany: 11.8 million (30.8%)
- France: 11.2 million (42.3%)
- Italy: 7.9 million (35.4%)
- Canada: 7.4 million (58.0%)
- Spain: 5.5 million (41.7%)
- Brazil: 4.9 million (10.6%)
- Australia: 3.5 million (45.4%)
- Mexico: 3.0 million (12.3%)
- India: 2.3 million (1.2%)
- Argentina: 1.4 million (13.1%)
- Rest of the World: 42.7 million (3.0%)
- Worldwide: 251.2 million (10.5%)

Yet sheer numbers do not paint the complete picture of global broadband development. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and, to a lesser extent, the US are entering a new phase of broadband development, according to eMarketer. The market is moving from the high-speed internet to the very-high-speed internet. The process is well underway in South Korea and Japan, where broadband users are trading up from DSL (digital subscriber line) to higher-bandwidth technologies such as optical fiber. 

In North America, broadband adoption has occurred even more rapidly in Canada than in the US, with eMarketer estimating that over 50% of Canadian households at the end of 2005 had broadband, compared with less than 38% of US households at the same time. eMarketer estimates that by 2011, the figure will reach 76.7% in Canada and 69.3% in the US. By 2011 there will over 100 million broadband households in North America. (eMarketer, March 2007)

The number of worldwide consumer broadband connections will reach 364 million by 2010, according to Gartner Inc. At the end of 2005, 12% of households worldwide had a broadband connection and by 2010 Gartner estimates that figure will nearly double to reach 21%. 

The mature market segment of Asia/Pacific and Japan will continue to account for nearly 40% of worldwide broadband connections. In this region, Gartner predicts that ¾ of households will have broadband connections by 2010 compared with around half of North American and Western European households. 

Broadband has achieved mass-market penetration in Western Europe with France, Germany and the UK leading in terms of absolute numbers. Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland had the highest consumer broadband household penetration rates in 2005. (Gartner, February 2007)

The worldwide total of DSL and cable broadband users will grow by an average of 9% annually over the next five years, reaching 480 million subscribers by 2012, according to ABI Research.

The Asia-Pacific region offers a potentially huge market, according to ABI Research. In terms of statistical benchmarking, the subscriber base in the Asia-Pacific region will grow substantially over the next five years, and is expected to outperform other areas. Much of the Asia-Pacific growth is expected to be fuelled by the flourishing Chinese broadband market.

ABI also claims that broadband via DSL will grow more quickly than cable because it can leverage existing telecommunications infrastructures, leading to lower prices and greater ease of deployment. (eMarketer, February 2007)

Every week around 1.25 million consumers around the world sign up for broadband, according to Point Topic, with around two thirds of new subscribers choosing DSL. 

At the end of September 2006, the global broadband subscriber base reached more than 263 million, with DSL contributing more than 173 million users. Point Topic also found that DSL's position as the most popular broadband access technology in the world at 65.6% market share, is solidified in Europe where its market share rises to 82%.

Cable, by contrast, holds a 22.84% global market share and fibre (FTTx) follows a 10.24%.

The US is the world's largest broadband market with more than 55.5 million broadband subscribers, but the world's largest DSL market is China with 35 million users at the end of September. The US is the world's second largest DSL market with 24.5 million users. 

Japan follows with 14.5 million DSL subscribers, Germany with 12.3 million and France and the UK with 11.9 million and 9.3 million respectively. The UK added 2.9 million new DSL subscribers in the 12 months to September 30, a growth of almost 46%. (Telecoms.com, December 2006)

The number of broadband subscribers in the 30 countries tracked by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reached 181 million in June 2006. This represents a 33% increase over the previous year. 

Broadband reaches an average 15.5 subscribers per 100 inhabitants, compared to 11.7 subscribers per 100 in 2005. DSL (63%) leads over cable modems (29%) and other technologies - like satellite, fiber, and fixed wireless (8%), in 28 of the 30 countries. 

Users in the US and Canada tend to opt for cable modems over DSL. 

With 57 million users, the U.S. has the largest total number of broadband subscribers. The country accounts for 36% of all broadband connections for the 30 OECD countries. Excluding the US, Northern European countries are among the highest ranked in terms of broadband penetration. Denmark, the Netherlands, Iceland, Korea, Switzerland, and Finland each have at least 25 broadband subscribers per 100 residents.

In the first half of the year the strongest growth in broadband was seen in Denmark, Australia, Norway, the Netherlands, Finland, Luxembourg, Sweden and the UK, where over 6 subscribers per 100 people were added in each country. (ClickZ.com, October 2006)

The number of DSL users worldwide topped the 164 million mark at the end of June 2006, driven by increasing penetration of the technology in Europe and strong growth in developing markets, according to Point Topic. 

Worldwide, the number of business and residential users signing up to DSL for broadband access has increased by almost 46 million in the past year, an annual growth of 38%.

The European Union maintained its position as the world's number one DSL region, accounting for more than 34% of all DSL subscribers globally. The EU region has added more than 17.5 million DSL subscribers in the past 12 months, to bring the total figure to 56.13 million. 

But it is in South and South East Asia where subscriber numbers are really rocketing with 13 million new subscribers in the 12 months to June 30th 2006. China, the world's largest DSL market, contributed the bulk of this growth with 11.6 million new customers. 

World's leading DSL market in 2006:
1. China: 33.3 million
2. US: 23.1 million
3. Japan: 14.8 million
4. Germany: 11.6 million
5. France: 11 million
6. The UK: 8.7 million

In eight countries worldwide, over 25% of telephone lines are now delivering broadband services over DSL, rising to a third in France and almost 40% in Finland. (Telecoms.com, September 2006)

Last Updated on Tuesday, 09 February 2010 10:56
 

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